Price Volatility of Lakatan Banana in Davao City

Abstract

This paper attempted to measure the univariate time series of the price of Lakatan Banana in Davao City. The primary aim of the study is to analyze the price trend and degree of price volatility. Hence, this study sought to present the trend of market volatility changes of Lakatan bananas, assess the peak and low of prices in time series, and impart price volatility information of Lakatan bananas in Davao City. Furthermore, researchers forecasted the time series. The study used a time series of secondary data obtained from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) covering the year 1997-2020, monthly basis. Moreover, the data was statistically treated using the ARCH model for capturing the price volatility and ARIMA model in forecasting the series. The ARCH(1) and ARIMA (2,1,2) are the best fitted models to continue the analysis. The ARCH(1) findings indicate that there is a lot more volatility towards the year 2020 and the diagnostics of ARIMA (2,1,2) model indicate that the forecasted price from 2021-2025 is consistent.