Forecasting World Gold Prices: Evidence in Eight Countries

Abstract

The study seeks to monitor global gold prices on the demand side using time-series analysis. Moreover, the study intends to elicit from mining key players the value of gold price forecasting at the production level.  Quarterly data from 2010 on the prevailing prices of gold prices from eight key countries were estimated using regression against time (RAT) model patterned from the simple linear regression equation. Results revealed that the eight gold price time-series are fluctuating at various months, depending on the demand for gold.   while time is a significant function for world gold prices in terms of U.S. dollars, Swiss francs and the Chinese renminbi find time as an insignificant predictor of gold price fluctuation. Implications were discussed.